PVAAS

Student Projection Report

The Student Projection report displays information about a student's likely performance on future assessments. The projections are based on each student's individual testing history across grades and subjects, and they represent how the student is likely to perform if the student makes average growth between now and the time the next assessment is administered.

Understanding the Graph

The data in the graph is expressed in state or reference group percentiles.

The red circles represent the student's performance on prior assessments in the selected subject. Although the report displays the student's prior scores in only the selected subject, the student's prior scores across tested subjects are used to generate the projection.

The yellow square represents the student's projected score. This point indicates how the student is likely to perform on the selected assessment if the student makes average growth in this subject.

The colored hash marks represent meaningful scores on the selected assessment. For state assessments, these lines mark the minimum score for each of the state's performance levels. For ACT, PSAT, and SAT, these lines represent meaningful benchmarks. No chart is provided for projections to AP exams.

To see the state or reference group percentile for each mark, place your cursor over the hash mark.

The PSAT benchmarks are provided by the College Board. Students who reach these college benchmark scores in the grade indicated should be considered on track to be college ready.

For AP exams, the reports display the student's probability of scoring at least a 3 or higher, 4 or higher, or 5. For ACT, PSAT, and SAT, the reports display the student's probability of reaching meaningful benchmark scores for each subject.

Understanding the Tables

The first table below the chart displays the student's projection data.

The cell on the left displays the student's projected state or reference group percentile. This value represents how the student is likely to score relative to the state or reference group distribution if the student makes average growth from now until the next assessment is administered. The projected percentile in this cell of the table is represented by the yellow square in the graph.

The rest of the cells in the table list the student's probability of reaching each assessment milestone noted. For state assessments, these cells indicate the student's likelihood of reaching at least Basic, Proficient, or Advanced on the selected assessment. For AP exams, the cells indicate the student's likelihood of scoring at least a 3 or higher, 4 or higher, or 5. For ACT, PSAT, and SAT, the cells indicate the student's likelihood of reaching meaningful benchmark scores.

The second table lists the student's testing history in the selected subject. In the State NCE\Score column, prior scores for assessments analyzed with the growth standard methodology are listed as reference group NCEs. In the Scale Score column prior scores for assessments analyzed with the predictive methodology are listed as state or reference group scale scores. In the %-ile column, scores for all assessments are listed as state or reference group percentiles.

Performance Levels and Benchmarks

You can compare the data in this report with national statistics to evaluate each students' college readiness. PVAAS provides probabilities of success for multiple benchmarks. To find more information about benchmarks used for college admissions follow these steps:

1. Open the College Navigator page in the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System.
2. Enter information about the college and click Show Results.
3. In the results click the name of a college.
4. Expand the Admissions section to find the test scores for the school's recently enrolled students.

In What are the ACT® College Readiness Benchmarks, ACT, Inc. provides information about benchmarks for math, reading, English, and science.

The PSAT benchmarks are provided by the College Board. Students who reach these college benchmark scores in the grade indicated should be considered on track to be college-ready.

For AP exams, the reports display the student's probability of scoring at least a 3 or higher, 4 or higher, or 5. For ACT, PSAT, and SAT, the reports display the student's probability of reaching meaningful benchmark scores for each subject.

ACCESS for ELLs Interpretive Guide for Score Reports provides information about these assessments. It includes additional details about the proficiency levels by subject. ACCESS for ELLs reports do not include state percentiles in tables or graphs.

Understanding the Graph

The data in the graph is expressed in state or reference group percentiles.

The red circles represent the student's performance on prior assessments in the selected subject. You'll want to keep in mind that even though the report displays the student's prior scores in only the selected subject, the student's prior scores across tested subjects are used to generate the projection.

The yellow square represents the student's projected score. This point indicates how the student is likely to perform on the selected assessment if the student makes average growth in this subject.

The colored hash marks represent meaningful scores on the selected assessment.

For state assessments, these lines mark the minimum score for each of the state's performance levels. For ACT, PSAT, and SAT, these lines represent meaningful benchmarks. No chart is provided for projections to AP exams.

To see the state or reference group percentile for each mark, place your cursor over the hash mark.

Understanding the Tables

The first table below the chart displays the student's projection data. The cell on the left displays the student's projected state or reference group percentile. This value represents how the student is likely to score relative to the state or reference group distribution if the student makes average growth from now until the next assessment is administered. The projected percentile in this cell of the table is represented by the yellow square in the graph.

The rest of the cells in the table list the student's probability of reaching each assessment milestone noted. For state assessments, these cells indicate the student's likelihood of reaching at least Basic, Proficient, or Advanced on the selected assessment. For AP exams, the cells indicate the student's likelihood of scoring at least a 3 or higher, 4 or higher, or 5. For ACT, PSAT, and SAT, the cells indicate the student's likelihood of reaching meaningful benchmark scores.

The second table lists the student's testing history in the selected subject. In the State NCE\Score column, prior scores for assessments analyzed with the growth standard methodology are listed as reference group NCEs. In the Scale Score column prior scores for assessments analyzed with the predictive methodology are listed as state or reference group scale scores. In the %-ile column, scores for all assessments are listed as state or reference group percentiles.

More Information

What Educators Should Know about Student Projection Probabilities

Using Student Projection Data with Other Student-Level Data

Student Report Desk Reference